Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates rose sharply yesterday. When they started that morning, a modest increase had seemed likely.

There might be better news in store. Today, mortgage rates are expected to remain stable or even drop a little.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 11, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

Don’t get too excited if mortgage rates drop a bit today. It’s probably one of those breaks that all markets take occasionally rather than the start of a new downtrend.

And, overall, I expect mortgage rates to keep going up for some time.

So, for now, my personal rate foreclosure recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing seven days
• LOCK if closing 15 days
• LOCK if closing 30 days
• LOCK if closing 45 days
• LOCK if closing 60 days

> Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a look at the state of play this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time yesterday, was as follows:

• the 10-year Treasury bill yield jumped to 1.77% from 1.79%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular yields of Treasury bonds.
• Main stock market indices were inferior. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The reverse can happen when the indices are lower. But it’s an imperfect relationship
• Oil price barely budged: at $ 79.02 against $ 79.03 per barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play an important role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
• Gold price rose to $ 1,803 from $ 1,793 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
• CNN Corporate Fear and Greed Index – remained stable at 52 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) when they exit the bond market and head for stocks, while “scared” investors push back. . So lower readings are better than higher ones

* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only count significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Warnings about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess at what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are generally right. But our accuracy record won’t hit its former high levels until things calm down.

So use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to lean on them. But, with this caveat, today’s mortgage rates are expected to stay the same or just a little lower. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 11, 2022)

Important Notes on Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why You Should Care About Them
2. Only “top” borrowers (with exceptional credit scores, large down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultra low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised.
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they generally all follow the larger trend over time.
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their fee schedules unchanged.
5. Refinancing rates are generally close to those for purchases.

There’s a lot going on right now. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates going up or down?

Mortgage rates have climbed rapidly since the start of the year. Indeed, this is the biggest increase I can remember.

Perhaps we will take a break today. But how long this will last will depend on upcoming events:

1. What Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Says In Testimony To The Senate Banking Committee This Morning
2. Inflation data tomorrow in the form of the December consumer price index

We’ll just have to wait and see how it goes.

For a more in-depth look at what determines mortgage rates, read the weekend’s edition of this daily rate report.

Recently

Through much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Since then, the picture has been mixed with extended periods of ups and downs. Unfortunately, since September the increases have accelerated, but not consistently.

Freddie’s January 6 report puts this weekly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages at 3.22% (with 0.7 fees and points), at the top from 3.11% of the previous week. But that doesn’t account for some hikes that week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, housing industry and businesses. mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining current quarter of 2021 (Q4 / 21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1 / 22, Q2 / 22 and Q3 / 22).

The figures in the table below are for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. The Fannies were published on December 20 and the MBAs on December 21.

Freddie’s was released on October 15. It now only updates its forecasts quarterly. So we may not get another one until January. And his figures already seem out of date.

However, given so many unknowables, the entire current crop of forecasts may be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

You should shop around on a large scale regardless of what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:

“Shopping around for your mortgage can save you money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Check your new rate (January 11, 2022)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of the daily rates and how they have changed over time.