Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates

Average mortgage rates rose significantly on Friday, bringing them to their highest level in two years. But remember, these rates remain incredibly low by historical standards.

Unfortunately, first thing this morning, it looked like mortgage rates may rise further today. Of course, that could change. But the momentum seems strong.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 18, 2022)

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?

I would lock in my mortgage rate ASAP if I were you. Yes, I could be wrong, with the fact that I don’t own a crystal ball. But it looks to me like these rates should continue to rise for some time, with the increases outweighing the occasional declines. Want to know more? Keep reading.

So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• LOCK if closing seven days
• LOCK if closing 15 days
• LOCK if closing 30 days
• LOCK if closing 45 days
• LOCK if closing 60 days

>Related: 7 tips for getting the best refinance rate

Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here is an overview of the situation this morning around 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to around the same time last Friday, was:

• the yield on 10-year treasury bills went from 1.75% to 1.83%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular treasury yields
• Main stock indices were weaker. (Good for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers bond prices and raises yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are weaker. But it’s an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices rose to $84.85 from $82.79 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation and also indicate future economic activity
• gold price fell slightly to $1,813 from $1,822 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it’s better for rates when gold goes up, and worse when gold goes down. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates down
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — increased to 53 from 50 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “greedy” investors cause bond prices to fall (and interest rates to rise) when they leave the bond market and turn to equities, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A change of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. We therefore only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Market and rate warnings

Prior to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We are still making daily calls. And are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its former high levels until things stabilize.

So use the markets only as an indication. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied upon. But, with this caveat, today’s mortgage rates are likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find your lowest rate. Start here (January 18, 2022)

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is struggling. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care‘
2. Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit scores, large down payments, and very sound finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements – although they all generally follow the larger trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rates unchanged
5. Refinance rates are generally close to purchase rates.

There’s a lot going on right now. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the hours, days, weeks or months to come.

Are mortgage and refinance rates going up or down?

As you probably know, 10-year Treasury bond yields generally have a close relationship with mortgage rates. And those ratings continued to rise noticeably overnight.

In the wee hours of this morning, CNBC suggested a reason for the rise:

The move, which comes after a U.S. holiday on Monday, signals investors are bracing for the possibility of more aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the US Senate last week that he expected to see a series of interest rate hikes this year, as well as a rollback of other economic support measures. to the pandemic.

– CNBC, “10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2-Year High, Surpassing 1.83%”, January 18, 2022

The Federal Reserve’s accelerated dismantling of its pandemic stimulus programs is certainly a problem for investors. Meanwhile, the big other is tightly bound.

And that’s uncomfortably hot inflation. Last week we learned that consumer prices in December rose at their fastest pace in 40 years. The Fed is scrambling because inflation continues to rise.

Together, these factors will almost inevitably put continued upward pressure on mortgage rates, barring shock events.

For a longer look at what’s driving mortgage rates, including why the markets are bullish on Omicron, read the weekend edition of this daily rate report.

Recently

For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new all-time weekly low was set 16 times last year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on January 7, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

Since then, the chart has been mixed with long stretches of ups and downs. Unfortunately, since September, the increases have increased, but not steadily.

Freddie’s January 13 the report puts that weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 3.45% (with 0.7 fees and points), at the top compared to 3.22% the previous week.

Expert Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Longer term, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. .

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remainder of the current quarter of 2021 (Q4/21) and the first three quarters of 2022 (Q1/22, Q2/22 and Q3/22).

The figures in the table below are for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Those of Fannie were published on December 20 and those of the MBA on December 21.

Freddie’s was released on October 15. It now only updates its forecast quarterly. We may therefore not receive another one before the end of the month. And his numbers already seem outdated.

However, given so much unknowable, the current forecast set may be even more speculative than usual.

Find your lowest rate today

You should do a lot of comparison shopping no matter what type of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states:

“Shopping around for your mortgage can save you real money. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter point of interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the term of your loan.

Check your new rate (January 18, 2022)

Mortgage Rate Methodology

Mortgage reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of ​​what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The end result is a good overview of daily rates and how they change over time.